Forecast of Atlantic Hurricane Activity October to November 2007 - 3.10.07

As of 2 October 2007, Professor Gray at Colorado State University has made a forecast of the hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.  He expects October-November to be active owing to the current strength of the current La Nina.  A short abstract is reproduced below.  A copy of the document is available here.   

Information obtained up until 30 September 2007 shows that we have so far experienced a slightly above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season.  August had somewhat above-average activity (about 130% of average) while September had about average activity (about 92% of average).  84% of the average full season Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity has occurred so far this year.  In an average year, approximately 78% of the seasonal average NTC of 100 occurs by the end of September.

Our October-November forecast calls for four named storms, two hurricanes, one major hurricane and NTC activity of 43 which is well above the October –November average value of 22.  Our well above-average prediction for October-November activity is largely due to the emergence of a now moderate La Nina event during the last two months.