Atrium released Syndicate 609's result for the 2020 Account and improved 2021 Account estimates:
|Result / Latest Forecast||Previous Forecast||Mid Point Movement|
|Syn 609||2020||+8.0%||+5.0% to +10.0%||+0.5%|
|2021||+5.0% to +15.0%||0.0% to +10.0%||+5.0%|
Atrium has provided comment in its accompanying letter about the Ukraine exposure that the 2021 Year of Account is the one that could be most impacted by the possible claims arising out of the western leased aircraft in Russia. Atrium mentions that when arriving at the latest reserving position for a very complicated situation, the financial implications of multiple scenarios have been modelled. The reserve is included in the latest forecast above. Atrium warns that the potential for variation to the booked reserves is considerably greater than the normal level of reserve sensitivity to downside risk and the "actual outcome of the loss could be in a particularly wide range with greater than usual variability."
The key assumptions upon which the forecasts are based are set out below by Atrium:-
1. Inherent volatility in claims development will not give rise to actual ultimate claims which are materially divergent from expectations. In particular there will be no significant distortion in the incidence of major catastrophe or attritional losses or in the ability of the syndicates’ reinsurers to respond to potential reinsurance recoveries;
2. The development of open year premiums will be broadly consistent with historical development patterns;
3. There will be no material change in reserving methodology or accounting policies at the respective dates of closure of the open years;
4. Inflation, interest and exchange rates as at the respective dates of closure of the open years will not differ significantly from those taken into account in the forecasts;
5. There will be no material unbudgeted expenses; and
6. Investment returns will be materially in line with investment manager expectations.
We will write more in the forthcoming HUR estimates Bulletin.