Atrium has updated the 2021 and 2022 account estimates for its managed syndicate 609, as follows, and provided additional comment:-
|Latest Forecast||Previous Forecast||Mid Point Movement|
|Synd 609||2021||+5.0% to +15.0%||+5.0% to +15.0%||0.0%|
|2022||+7.5% to +17.5%||+5.0% to +15.0%||2.5%|
In respect of the 2021 Account, Atrium's Press Release states as follows:-
"2021 is the year of account that could be most impacted by the possible claims arising out of the western leased aircraft in Russia. This is an extremely complicated situation and one in which the evidential picture is still developing. The following factors: (i) whether the loss is an all-risks (as multiple aviation war insurers are asserting) or war peril loss, (ii) when it occurred, (iii) whether it’s a single loss event or multiple loss events and (iv) how sanctions impact the same, all result in considerably different reserving outcomes to the Syndicate.
In arriving at the reserving position for this loss, the financial implications of multiple scenarios have been modelled, taking account of the uncertainties listed above and utilising a probabilistic framework. In arriving at our reserving position, the likelihood of these scenarios occurring was established using expert judgement. This reserve is included within the +5.0% - +15.0% forecast. Due to the nature of the circumstances mentioned above, the potential for variation to the booked reserves is considerably greater than the normal level of reserve sensitivity to downside risk and the actual outcome of the loss could be in a particularly wide range with greater than usual variability."