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May 07, 2021

Atrium Syndicate 609 and QBE Syndicate 386 forecasts for 2019 and 2020 Accounts

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Atrium

2019 Account Forecast

Syndicate

Updated Forecast %

Previous end-December % forecasts advised to Members

609

+2.5 to +7.5

0.0 to +10.0

2020 Account Forecast

Syndicate

Updated Forecasts %

Previous end-December % forecasts advised to Members

609

+2.5 to +12.5

N/a

Atrium makes note to Members as follows:

"All forecasts are shown as a percentage return on allocated capacity after deduction of standard personal expenses, but before members’ agents’ fees. These forecasts are subject to the assumptions listed below and are subject to possible revision.

Due to the ongoing nature of COVID-19 and the economic impact that this has had, we draw your attention, in particular, to assumptions 1 and 6 below.

The key assumptions upon which each syndicates’ open year forecasts are based are set out below:

1. Inherent volatility in claims development will not give rise to actual ultimate claims which are materially divergent from expectations. In particular there will be no significant distortion in the incidence of major catastrophe or attritional losses or in the ability of the syndicates’ reinsurers to respond to potential reinsurance recoveries;
2. The development of open year premiums will be broadly consistent with historical development patterns;
3. There will be no material change in reserving methodology or accounting policies at the respective dates of closure of the open years;
4. Inflation, interest and exchange rates as at the respective dates of closure of the open years will not differ significantly from those taken into account in the forecasts;
5. There will be no material unbudgeted expenses; and
6. Investment returns will be materially in line with investment manager expectations."


QBE


2019 Account Forecast

Syndicate

Updated Forecast %

Previous end-December % forecasts advised to Members

386

+7.4 to +12.4

+8.9 to +13.9

2020 Account Forecast

Syndicate

Updated Forecasts %

Previous end-December % forecasts advised to Members

386

+17.9 to +22.9

N/a

QBE comments about these years:

"The 2019 pure year mid-range profit forecast of +9.9% is down from +11.4% previous, reflecting a revised forecast investment contribution for the year. The 2020 pure year is performing better than plan with a projected mid-range profit of +20.4% of capacity."


The complete set of updated forecasts will be released by Lloyd's on May 12.