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Aug 05, 2021

Atrium Syndicate 609 updated forecast results 2019 & 2020 Years of Account

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Atrium has advised unchanged updated forecast results (including estimates of prior year movements) for the 2019 and 2020 years of account

Syndicate 609

Year of Account

Updated forecast

Previous forecast

Change in estimate

2019

+2.5% to +7.5%

+2.5% to +7.5%

Unchanged

2020

+2.5% to +12.5%

+2.5% to +12.5%

Unchanged

As included in previous forecasts, Atrium's Press Release mentions: "These forecasts are subject to the assumptions listed below and are subject to possible revision.

"Due to the ongoing nature of COVID-19 and the economic impact that this has had, we draw your attention, in particular, to assumptions 1 and 6 below.


"Forecast assumptions

The key assumptions upon which each syndicates’ open year forecasts are based are set out below:
1. Inherent volatility in claims development will not give rise to actual ultimate claims which are materially divergent from expectations. In particular there will be no significant distortion in the incidence of major catastrophe or attritional losses or in the ability of the syndicates’ reinsurers to respond to potential reinsurance recoveries;
2. The development of open year premiums will be broadly consistent with historical development patterns;
3. There will be no material change in reserving methodology or accounting policies at the respective dates of closure of the open years;
4. Inflation, interest and exchange rates as at the respective dates of closure of the open years will not differ significantly from those taken into account in the forecasts;
5. There will be no material unbudgeted expenses; and
6. Investment returns will be materially in line with investment manager expectations."