2020 Account

2021 Account

Their initial forecast range for the 2021 year of account (including estimates of prior year movements):-

Atrium stated in their letter "These forecasts are subject to the assumptions listed below and are subject to possible revision. Due to the ongoing nature of COVID-19, the economic impact that this has had, the potential impact of losses arising from the war in Ukraine and possible aviation claims in Russia, we draw your attention, in particular, to assumptions 1 and 6 below.

The key assumptions upon which each syndicates’ open year forecasts are based are set out below:-

1. Inherent volatility in claims development will not give rise to actual ultimate claims which are materially divergent from expectations. In particular there will be no significant distortion in the incidence of major catastrophe or attritional losses or in the ability of the syndicates’ reinsurers to respond to potential reinsurance recoveries;

2. The development of open year premiums will be broadly consistent with historical development patterns;
3. There will be no material change in reserving methodology or accounting policies at the respective dates of closure of the open years;
4. Inflation, interest and exchange rates as at the respective dates of closure of the open years will not differ significantly from those taken into account in the forecasts;
5. There will be no material unbudgeted expenses; and
6. Investment returns will be materially in line with investment manager expectations.