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Aug 10, 2020

Atrium updated forecasts for 2018 & 2019 years of account

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Atrium has released updated forecasts for the 2018 and 2019 Accounts as follows:-

2018 Year of Account

SyndicateCurrent Forecast Range
% of Capacity
Previous Forecast Range
% of Capacity
6090.0% to +7.5%(2.5%) to +7.5%

2019 Year of Account

SyndicateCurrent Forecast Range
% of Capacity
Previous Forecast Range
% of Capacity
6090.0% to +10%0.0% to +10.0%

The complete announcement is available here.

This contains the following:

"Due to the ongoing nature of COVID 19 we draw your attention, in particular, to assumptions 1 and 6 below.


"The key assumptions upon which each syndicates’ open year forecasts are based are set out below:

1. Inherent volatility in claims development will not give rise to actual ultimate claims which are materially divergent from expectations. In particular there will be no significant distortion in the incidence of major catastrophe or attritional losses or in the ability of the syndicates’ reinsurers to respond to potential reinsurance recoveries;
2. The development of open year premiums will be broadly consistent with historical development patterns;
3. There will be no material change in reserving methodology or accounting policies at the respective dates of closure of the open years;
4. Inflation, interest and exchange rates as at the respective dates of closure of the open years will not differ significantly from those taken into account in the forecasts;
5. There will be no material unbudgeted expenses; and
6. Investment returns will be materially in line with investment manager expectations.