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Aug 06, 2021

QBE Syndicate 386 updated forecast results 2019 & 2020 Years of Account and 2022 pre-emption plans

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QBE has written to provide the following updated forecasts:

Syndicate 386 - 2019 and 2020 Open year Forecasts at 30 June 2021

Year of Account

Updated forecast

Previous forecast

Change in estimate

2019

-1.2% to +3.8%

+7.4% to +12.4%

-8.6%

2020

+18.8% to +23.8%

+17.9% to +22.9%

+0.9%

QBE states in its letter that the deterioration in the 2019 Account is "due to unfavourable loss experience in the 2018 and prior years, including large loss deteriorations within the International Liability and Professional Indemnity classes."

"Whilst analysis of this prior year experience remains ongoing, it is not expected to impact the pure 2019 and future year forecasts due to the significant remediation of the books already undertaken, coupled with the material rate increases achieved since."

We will provide further information on this in the HUR August Estimates Bulletin.

2022 Syndicate proposed pre-emption

QBE has also advised that its draft 2022 business plan (SBF) proposes a 10% pre-emption, reflecting the following:

• circa 5% projected overwrite of 2021 original SBF (including impact of change to 2022 SBF FX
rates)
• additional rate driven growth for 2022 year
• no material changes to underwriting risk appetite or philosophy for any class of business